Price trends

The GEC price reflects supply–demand dynamics and varies by region and certificate vintage.

The emergence of the Zhejiang GEC price index in March 2025 further supports transparent pricing and may reduce information asymmetry among buyersredex.eco.

Market participants

Grid and trading organisations

• State Grid Corporation of China (SGCC) – operates the main electricity grid covering 27 provinces. SGCC runs the national GEC trading platform and supports provincial markets. It partnered with Zhejiang International Oil and Gas Trading Centre to launch the first GEC price indexredex.eco. SGCC’s network facilitates cross‑provincial trades but faces congestion between north‑western generation centres and eastern demand hubs, which depresses prices in the north.

• China Southern Power Grid (CSG) – serves five southern provinces (Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, Guizhou and Hainan). The CSG region has better west‑to‑east transmission and recorded 128.9 billion kWh of green‑power and certificate trades in Q1 2025chinadailyhk.com. Cross‑provincial trades make up about 30 % of transactions.

• Beijing Power Exchange Center & Guangzhou Power Exchange Center – host regional GEC trading and provide listing and bilateral negotiation services. Source

Renewable energy producers

China’s GECs are issued to a broad portfolio of renewable projects. State‑owned enterprises remain dominant:

• China Three Gorges Corporation (CTG) – the world’s largest hydropower developer; its dams (e.g., Three Gorges, Baihetan) contribute a significant share of hydropower GECs.

• State Power Investment Corporation (SPIC) – a leading wind and solar developer with projects such as the 2 GW Jiuquan wind complex and large PV bases in Qinghai.

• China Huaneng, Datang, and Huadian – diversified utilities operating extensive wind, solar and biomass portfolios.

• Guangdong Energy Group and China General Nuclear Power Group (CGN) – major producers in the CSG region; CGN’s Huizhou offshore wind project reportedly increased annual revenue by over CNY 120 million through GEC tradingredex.eco.

These producers register their generation output to receive GECs and either sell them bundled with power through long‑term power purchase agreements (PPAs) or unbundled via trading platforms.

Corporate buyers and examples

• Manufacturing sector dominance: In 2024 about 70 % of traded GECs were purchased by manufacturing enterpriseschinadailyhk.com. Buyers include metals producers (aluminium, steel), chemicals, automotive and electronics firms that need GECs to meet regulatory or customer‑driven decarbonisation requirements.

• Cross‑grid transaction pilot: In March 2025, BASF, Covestro, Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical and Tencent jointly purchased 52.7 million kWh of renewable electricity and associated GECs from Guangxi and Yunnan via the first cross‑grid tradechinadaily.com.cn. This transaction demonstrates corporate demand for cross‑regional certificates and helps pave the way for a unified national market.

• Long‑term PPAs: Multinationals increasingly sign long‑term green power purchase agreements in China. For example, BASF signed a 10‑year renewable PPA in October 2024 to supply its three manufacturing sites in Jiangsu Province. The sleeved PPA with CLP China and Envision Energy guarantees 100 % renewable electricity and helps BASF meet its carbon‑neutrality goalsbasf.com.

• RE100 members: More than 270 RE100 companies purchased green electricity in China by May 2025, consuming 77 billion kWh of renewable power (59 % of their electricity use)en.people.cn. With RE100 now recognising GECs, these companies will shift from international certificates to domestic GECs to verify renewable consumptionredex.eco.

• Small and medium enterprises: The Zhejiang GEC price index has enabled SMEs such as Zhejiang Seven Color Rainbow Technology Co. to purchase GECs more transparently.

Regional dynamics

China’s renewable resource distribution and grid structure create pronounced regional differences:

1. North‑west oversupply and low prices: Provinces such as Inner Mongolia, Gansu and Ningxia possess abundant wind and solar resources. Many older, centralised renewable plants generate large volumes of GECs, but limited transmission capacity to coastal demand centres results in low certificate prices—often below CNY 3, compared with the national averageeco-business.com.

2. Coastal and southern demand hubs: Coastal provinces import electricity and need certificates to satisfy export‑oriented supply chains and the EU’s CBAM. Guangdong’s policy linking officials’ performance to green‑power procurement created immediate demand pressure in 2024–25eco-business.com. The CSG region’s better west‑to‑east transmission allows more cross‑provincial trades (around 30 %eco-business.com), which supports higher prices.

3. Cross‑grid trade barriers: Historically, trades have occurred within provinces or within SGCC/CSG grids because of local interests and high transmission fees. The March 2025 pilot cross‑grid deal highlights policy efforts to overcome these barriers and suggests a path towards a unified national certificate market.

4. Emergence of provincial price signals: Zhejiang’s price index is the first provincial tool to publish reference prices and may inspire similar indices elsewhereredex.eco. It also underscores that only around 10 % of issued certificates are traded, implying significant untapped liquidity and the need for demand‑stimulating policies.

Demand drivers

Several factors are converging to drive demand for GECs in the near term:

• Mandatory consumption targets: The 2025 guideline requires high‑energy industries to ensure their renewable‑power consumption matches or exceeds the national share by 2030eco-business.com. Provinces like Yunnan, Qinghai and Sichuan already pilot mandatory green‑power quotas for aluminium smelters (70 % of consumption)eco-business.com. Such mandates directly translate into GEC demand.

• Policy‑linked evaluations: Guangdong’s policy ties officials’ performance evaluations to corporate green‑power purchases, making GEC procurement essential for companies operating thereeco-business.com.

• International supply‑chain pressure: The EU’s CBAM and RE100 requirements compel exporters to prove renewable consumption. RE100’s acceptance of GECs means multinational corporations can no longer rely on I‑RECs, increasing domestic GEC demandredex.eco.

• Withdrawal of I‑REC certificates: In March 2025 the international I‑REC programme withdrew from the Chinese market, leaving the GEC as the only energy‑attribute certificateeco-business.com. This avoids double‑counting and funnels all corporate renewable‑power certification into the GEC marketeco-business.com.

• Growing renewable generation: China generated 3.46 trillion kWh of renewable electricity in 2024, representing 35 % of total power generationeco-business.com. Renewable capacity continues to expand; 76.75 GW of new capacity was installed in Q1 2025, and wind and solar accounted for over 90 %redex.eco. As generation rises, more certificates will be issued, broadening the market base.

Future outlook and challenges

Expected demand and growth

Analysts expect demand for GECs to rise dramatically as mandatory purchase requirements take effect. Based on 2023 power‑consumption data, the iron & steel, non‑ferrous metals and chemicals sectors alone would require about 900 million GECs annually, while growing data centres could require around 320 million. Combined demand could reach 1.22 billion certificates per year by 2035eco-business.com—nearly triple the 446 million traded in 2024. BloombergNEF predicts annual GEC demand of 1.22 billion in 2035, with certificates priced between CNY 5 and 8, creating a market worth CNY 6 – 10 billion (US$850 M–$1.4 B)eco-business.com.

Potential developments

• Price stabilisation: The early‑2025 price spike demonstrates that policy can quickly rebalance oversupply. The market may remain volatile in the short term, especially as 2024‑vintage certificates (valid until end‑2025) near expiryeco-business.com. Analysts expect supply and demand to converge by around 2027 when the national trading system is completedstdaily.com.

• Integration with carbon markets: Authorities are working to coordinate GECs with the China Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) scheme to avoid double‑counting. Some renewable projects (offshore wind, solar thermal) must choose between issuing GECs and CCER credits to prevent multiple claimseco-business.com. A unified policy could enable combined procurement strategies for carbon and energy attributes.

• International recognition and cross‑border trading: Ongoing negotiations between the NEA and the EU aim to mutually recognise Chinese GECs and European Guarantees of Originredex.eco. International projects such as the China‑Laos railway already require GECs for renewable electricityeco-business.com. As cross‑border recognition improves, demand from Southeast Asia and Europe may groweco-business.com.

• Technological innovation: Digital platforms, blockchain‑based traceability and virtual power plants may support trading efficiency and new financial products. The Eco‑Business article suggests that once pricing and recognition stabilise, attention will shift to derivatives and new models such as “virtual power stations”eco-business.com.

Challenges

• Oversupply and low utilisation: In 2024, only 8.1 % of issued certificates were tradedeco-business.com. Without compulsory purchases or effective cross‑provincial trading, oversupply could continue to suppress prices and reduce incentives for renewable generators.

• Regional fragmentation: Transmission bottlenecks and provincial interests limit cross‑provincial trading, causing price disparities and preventing efficient allocation of certificateseco-business.com.

• Data transparency and double‑counting concerns: International stakeholders require robust tracking to prevent double‑counting between GECs and other carbon instruments. RE100 has stressed the need for clear retirement and disclosure mechanismseco-business.com. Continued improvements in data transparency and linkage with carbon markets will be crucialredex.eco.

• Standardisation and international alignment: Despite RE100 recognition, mutual recognition with the EU’s CBAM and other jurisdictions is still under negotiationredex.eco. Differences in standards may hamper cross‑border trades until harmonised rules are established.

Conclusion

China’s Green Electricity Certificate market has transformed from a voluntary pilot into the world’s largest renewable‑certificate program. Regulatory changes in 2023–2025 extended the system to all renewables, established trading rules and introduced mandatory purchase signals for energy‑intensive industries. Issuance surged to nearly 5 billion certificates by the end of 2024 and trades quadrupled to 446 million, though oversupply kept average prices around CNY 9.6. By early 2025, policy‑driven demand and the withdrawal of alternative certificates triggered a sharp price rebound, signifying a shift from voluntary to compliance‑driven demand.

Looking forward, the GEC market faces both opportunities and challenges. Mandatory renewable quotas, RE100 recognition and international supply‑chain pressures will likely drive annual demand towards 1.2 billion certificates by the mid‑2030s. However, the market must overcome regional fragmentation, price volatility and data transparency issues. Building a unified national trading platform by 2027, establishing a credible price index and harmonising GEC rules with carbon markets and international standards will be critical for the GEC system to support China’s renewable‑energy goals and contribute to global decarbonisation.