France’s regulator just pencilled in a bigger 2026 support bill—and that has direct knock-ons for the GO market. More subsidised output means more state-owned GOs heading to auction, likely softer prices, and deeper liquidity for buyers planning French-located claims in 2026.

What changed

CRE’s first pass at 2026 public-service energy charges (CSPE) puts the total at €12.94bn (vs €10.9bn in 2025). Within that, support for renewables + gas CHP in mainland France rises to ~€8.3bn (from €6.9bn), driven by +9 TWh of supported volumes and an assumption of durably low wholesale prices. CRE also notes 2024’s record power-export surplus contributed roughly €5bn to the trade balance.

What this means for GOs

Supply boost. Supported plants must transfer their GOs to the State (DGEC), which auctions them via EEX; with +9 TWh supported, expect ~9 million additional GOs flowing into 2026 auctions. EEX’s framework confirms the State is the sole seller and publishes a monthly auction calendar.

Pricing & liquidity. More volume, larger lots, and a predictable cadence typically loosen the market. As a marker, April 2025 French state auctions cleared ~€1.07–€1.21/MWh across regions and ~€1.07–€1.13/MWh by technology—already a low base that additional 2026 supply may keep under pressure while improving depth for corporates.

Budget mechanics. Auction proceeds are public revenues (historically routed through State accounts/CAS “Transition énergétique”), helping offset higher support outlays when wholesale prices are weak. The legal architecture for State GO auctions sits in Decree 2018-243 and the Energy Code.

Corporate sourcing. For buyers, more French-located volume, published auction dates, and transparent results improve hedging and planning—useful for 24/7 or locational matching claims. The trade-off: limited “additionality” signalling from these lots because revenues accrue to the State rather than the underlying asset.

The wider EU backdrop

Across Europe in 2024, issuance (~1,670 TWh) exceeded cancellations (~1,350 TWh), leaving inventories ample—another factor capping prices.

Side note: biomethane GOs

France now runs quarterly State auctions for biomethane GOs. A recent auction cleared ~107 GWh at a €12.18/MWh reference price—far richer than power GOs, reflecting tighter supply-demand.

What to watch

• Any decree tweaks to auction design (e.g., term/forward auctions) that alter timing and price discovery for State GOs.

• Auction calendars/reserve prices at EEX as 2026 issuance ramps.

• Whether EU-wide issuance > cancellations persists into 2025/26, keeping a lid on prices.

References

• CRE – First evaluation of 2026 CSPE (totals; +9 TWh; low-price hypothesis; export/trade-balance note).

• EEX (Power GOs) – State is sole seller; monthly auction calendar; April 2025 clearing prices.

• Legifrance – Decree 2018-243 organising State GO auctions; Energy Code provisions.

• Cour des comptes/Budget docs – Auction proceeds as State revenues/CAS Transition énergétique.

• AIB – 2024 issuance vs. cancellations (EU balance).

• EEX (Biogas GOs) – Quarterly auctions; recent €12.18/MWh reference price; volumes.

• RTE – 2024 record net exports (89 TWh).

Glossary

• GO (Guarantee of Origin): 1 certificate = 1 MWh proving the where/when/how of production.

• DGEC: French energy directorate; owner/seller of State GOs.

• CSPE: Public-service energy charges that fund support schemes and other costs.

• RES-E: Renewable electricity.

• CHP: Cogeneration (power + heat).

• AIB: Association of Issuing Bodies; compiles EU GO statistics