2025 Research Report - Key Findings and Analysis
Renewable energy certificates (RECs) represent the environmental attributes associated with 1 MWh of renewable electricity generation. In the United States, RECs are used in compliance markets (to meet state renewable portfolio standard requirements) and voluntary markets (to support corporate or household renewable-electricity claims).
The U.S. market is fragmented across multiple regional REC registries and regulatory programs, leading to complex dynamics in volumes, pricing and participants.
In 2023, voluntary customers collectively purchased about 319 million MWh of renewable electricity, representing a 17% increase over 2022 and about 44% of all U.S. renewable-energy sales (excluding large hydropower).
Sustained demand from large corporate buyers, particularly data-center operators, means voluntary REC sales could soon overtake compliance-REC sales.
The Green-e® Energy program, run by the non-profit Center for Resource Solutions (CRS), independently verifies voluntary renewable-energy products.
Between 2014 and 2023, voluntary renewable power revenues ranged from USD 3 billion to USD 5 billion, with an additional USD 5 - 10 billion in power sales through long-term contracts. Voluntary buyers have collectively signed long-term contracts supporting more than 70 GW of renewable capacity.
The REC market involves a diverse set of actors, from utilities and competitive suppliers to corporations, brokers and households.
Utility green-pricing programs allow residential and small commercial customers in regulated markets to buy renewable electricity at a premium.
CCAs allow local governments in some states to procure electricity on behalf of residents.
| State (2023) | Voluntary Renewable Power Sales (MWh) | Customers |
|---|---|---|
| California | 12,440,000 | 5,099,000 |
| Ohio | 2,858,000 | 360,000 |
| Massachusetts | 587,000 | 276,000 |
| New York | 430,000 | 234,000 |
| Illinois | 70,000 | 8,000 |
| Rhode Island | 38,000 | 119,000 |
| New Hampshire | 5,000 | 7,000 |
| Total | 16,427,000 | 6,103,000 |
Corporate demand remains the principal driver of REC volumes. The EPA's Green Power Partnership "National Top 100" ranking shows that the combined annual green-power use of the Top 100 partners was nearly 98 billion kWh as of Oct 2024, equivalent to the electricity consumption of more than 9 million U.S. homes.
REC prices vary significantly by region, resource type and vintage.
PJM Tri-Qualified REC prices fell to USD 27.48/MWh on 1 March 2023, rose to a high of USD 37.55/MWh on 26 June 2023 and generally stayed in the low-to-mid-USD 30s/MWh through 2023.
NEPOOL Class I REC prices remained near USD 40/MWh in 2023–2024, just below alternative compliance payment levels. Solar REC prices remained stable but were highest in New Jersey, Massachusetts and the District of Columbia at USD 200–450/MWh.
Long-term PPAs and utility green-tariff contracts often include confidential pricing, but PPA market analyses indicate levelized prices falling to the mid-USD 20s to mid-USD 30s per MWh for wind and solar (excluding federal tax credits).
U.S. RECs are not issued by a single national registry; instead, ten major regional tracking systems record certificate issuance, transfers and retirements.
| Tracking System | Coverage and Role | Key Facts |
|---|---|---|
| WREGIS | Covers the western U.S., parts of Canada and Mexico | Independent web-based platform; generators must be located in the western grid |
| M-RETS / CleanCounts | Originally Midwest-focused but now accepts generators from anywhere in the U.S. and Canada | Issues a unique digital certificate for each MWh; certificates can be retired for compliance or voluntary use |
| NAR | Nationwide registry allowing projects across the U.S. and Canada | Used by states without their own registry and widely used for unbundled voluntary RECs |
| PJM-GATS | Serves the PJM interconnection region covering the mid-Atlantic and parts of the Midwest | Offers hourly certificates in addition to traditional monthly RECs |
| NEPOOL-GIS | Tracks all generation and load in New England | Q1 2025 statistics show ~4,200 account holders and 15+ million certificates issued |
| ERCOT | Texas state registry; issues RECs for renewable generation within Texas | Limited to Texas projects; does not register Canadian projects or out-of-state generation |
Key differences among registries include geographic scope and the ability to register out-of-region projects. M-RETS and NAR stand out for national coverage, whereas NEPOOL-GIS, ERCOT, NYGATS and MIRECS are state-specific.
As of 2024, 29 states and the District of Columbia have mandatory renewable portfolio standards (RPS), and 16 states have a clean electricity standard (CES) requiring broader decarbonisation. RPS targets range from less than 25% to more than 100% of retail sales.
LBNL projects 900 TWh of new clean electricity needed by 2050 to meet state RPS and CES requirements.
Each RPS includes an alternative compliance payment (ACP), which acts as a price ceiling. For example:
Growth in energy-storage deployments raises questions about REC accounting. NREL discusses proposals to account for storage efficiency losses to ensure that buyers claim only the renewable energy actually delivered.
Several tracking systems (e.g., PJM-GATS) are beginning to offer hourly or sub-hourly certificates. Temporal matching enables buyers to align renewable generation with consumption, a concept gaining momentum among corporate procurers seeking 24/7 carbon-free energy.
The voluntary REC market is expected to continue expanding as corporations pursue net-zero commitments, data centers proliferate and regulators consider stronger clean-energy standards.
NREL notes that voluntary REC sales already represent nearly half of all renewable-energy sales in the U.S., and long-term contracts are now the dominant procurement mechanism.